Trouble in Israel Means Trouble for Middle East
Potential Middle East Fallout from Olmert's Resignation
Aug 1, 2008
A couple of days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that he would not participate in his party’s primary election and would instead step down as soon as a new leader was chosen, possibly as early as September. Olmert’s fall from power, while not unexpected, could have serious ramifications for the Middle East as a whole.
Olmert has been plagued with troubles since his election in March 2006, following the suffering of a stroke by then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. Shortly after becoming Prime Minister, Olmert was faced with a massive war against the terrorist organization Hezbollah, operating out of Lebanon, after the group fired multiple rockets at Israeli towns and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.
During the ensuing conflict, Israel struggled against Hezbollah and Olmert failed to deliver on promises made at the beginning of the war, including the complete destruction of Hezbollah’s offensive capability and the return of the two kidnapped members of the Israel Defense Forces. The conflict ended virtually in a stalemate, which shocked the Israeli public and was widely perceived by Arabs in the region as a major victory over the militarily superior IDF.
Additionally, Olmert has suffered from repeated charges of corruption throughout his tenure, and there has been wide speculation for some time that his resignation was only a matter of time.
In line to replace Olmert are a host of prominent Israelis, including far right Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who has called for immediate elections to replace Olmert, fellow centrist-leaning Kadima Party members Tzipi Livni, who is currently Israel’s Foreign Minister, and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz. Labor Party leader Ehud Barak, who helped negotiate a deal to keep the current government intact without new elections, as called for by Likud, is also in the running for the Prime Minister’s post.
Olmert’s departure has several ramifications for the region as a whole, and the choice of successor could have a significant impact on current issues facing the Israeli government. To begin, the current instability within Israel suggests that a military strike against Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program is not likely, given the uncertainty surrounding the future Israeli leadership. Second, Hezbollah, which has been steadily rearming since the war with Israel two years ago, could see this time as a moment of weakness for Israel and take the opportunity to renew conflict with a state very much in turmoil.
Third, ongoing negotiations with Palestinian leaders could break down while members of Fatah and Hamas wait to see who will emerge from the Israeli power struggle. And, finally, advanced peace negotiations between Israel and Syria, designed to provide a measure of security for Israel on its northern frontier, could be derailed by wary parties in Damascus anxious to see how internal Israeli disputes play out.
The coming months will be important for Israel and the larger Middle East as the internal Israeli power struggle works itself out and Jerusalem decides whether to continue its current course or take on a new direction in regional relations.
